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Important IRS Update: Significant Interest Penalty Increase for Tax Underpayments
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has recently announced a critical change that could significantly impact taxpayers who underpay their taxes. This update is particularly relevant as we approach the next tax filing season. Previously, the IRS charged a 3% interest penalty on estimated tax underpayments. However, this rate has now been increased to a substantial
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Will Inflation Hurt Stock Returns? Not Necessarily
Investors may wonder whether stock returns will suffer if inflation keeps rising. Here’s some good news: Inflation isn’t necessarily bad news for stocks. A look at equity performance in the past three decades does not show any reliable connection between periods of high (or low) inflation and US stock returns. Since 1993, one-year returns on
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Maximize Your Charitable Impact with These Four Strategies
As the year draws to a close, it’s a perfect opportunity to rethink how you give to charity. This is important for managing how much tax you pay and how much help reaches those in need. Here are four effective strategies: Need Guidance? Reach Out to Us! These strategies are just a starting point. There
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Light at the End of the Infation Tunnel?
How many times have we heard some version of the phrase ‘past performance does not guarantee future performance’? And, well, it’s true. It doesn’t guarantee future performance. But there is a lot we can learn from the past. In the article below, Dr. Crill uses the breakeven inflation tool to explain why the market might be telling us that it does see inflation getting under control in the near future. Hopefully sooner than later because of these gas prices…
Hope it helps!
-Neel
At some point over the past year, the financial media’s inflation coverage transitioned from, “Will this high inflation persist?” to, “Here’s how to cope with inflation that’s here to stay!” It seems some investors have resigned themselves to a new normal of high inflation following decades of below-average consumer price changes. However, financial market data tells a different story, one of potentially softening inflation. Breakeven inflation (BEI) rates offer a window into the market’s inflation expectations. Defined as the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-protected bonds of the same maturity, BEI represents the inflation rate at which investors would be indifferent between the two. If actual inflation were to exceed BEI rates, investors would be better off with the inflation-protected bond; if inflation were less than BEI, the reverse would be true. BEI is therefore commonly interpreted as the average annual inflation rate expected over a given time horizon.1 The one-year BEI shows a spike in inflation expectations this year following increasingly high consumer price index (CPI) changes. But the trajectory appears to have changed course over the past couple of months (see Exhibit 1). Since peaking at 6.3% in late March, the one-year BEI had fallen to 5.2% as of June 10. This might be the market’s way of telling us it sees inflation getting under control in the near future.
It is important to remember that realized inflation can diverge from expectations. For example, the one-year BEI rate as of May 3, 2021, was just 2.7%. Over the next 12 months, CPI grew by 8.3%, meaning a substantial portion of this inflation seemed to have been unexpected by the market. From January 2007 to April 2022, the difference between actual inflation and that “predicted” by BEI varied from –5.59 to 8.43 percentage points.2 While nominal (i.e., not inflation-protected) bond prices reflect expected inflation, investors who opt for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or approaches that overlay inflation swaps (“real return” bond strategies) get compensated for actual inflation. Investors who want to reduce uncertainty in the event of higher-than-expected inflation may benefit from these inflation-hedging approaches.
By: Wes Crill, PhD
Head of Investment Strategists and Vice President
Sources: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Investment products: • Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value Dimensional Fund Advisors does not have any bank affliates.